Molybdenum demand trends

Understanding the demand picture is important for molybdenum investors, and the steel industry remains the one to watch for this market. As the biggest consumer of steel, China is a major driver of the molybdenum market. The country consumed 278.5 million pounds in 2023 according to IMOA figures, up 4 percent from the previous year. The Asian nation consumes more than twice as much as Europe, the second largest molybdenum consumer in 2023 at 124.8 million pounds. Molybdenum demand is growing the fastest in the US, which saw a 5 percent year-over-year rise in consumption in 2023 to 64.4 million pounds.

Investors should keep an eye on infrastructure spending and economically-stimulating central bank interest rate cuts coming out of these key regions. According to Fastmarkets, China’s property and infrastructure sectors have continued to falter throughout 2024, leading to diminished demand for steel and the raw materials needed for steel production. Beijing is expected to inject billions in fiscal stimulus in the near future to jolt its economy; whether or not it will be enough to turn the tide is yet to be seen.

However, positive growth out of India offers a silver lining. As Bloomberg reports, India’s steel market grew by 14 percent in 2023 and is expected to rise by another 8 percent this year. Looking over at Europe, the European Steel Association EUROFER is forecasting a 4.1 percent increase in steel consumption for the region in 2025. Continued interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank are expected to lower borrowing costs and stimulate construction rates.

The same is expected in the US, where the Federal Reserve is in the midst of a fresh rate cut cycle. US steel companies are optimistic about a turnaround for their industry in 2025.

“They see a turnaround fueled by an improving US economy, as large infrastructure projects get built and interest-rate cuts encourage consumer spending,” Bloomberg reported following the SMU Steel Summit in Atlanta in August 2024.

Molybdenum supply trends

As mentioned above, molybdenum is rarely produced as a primary metal, but rather as a by-product, mostly from copper mining. Hence, much of the world’s molybdenum supply is directly tied to major copper producing mines. This means that the supply side of the molybdenum market is very dependent on fluctuations in the copper price as well as disruptions to operations at copper mines, be they due to economic downturn, work-stopping weather events or massive labor disputes.

Not surprisingly, the top molybdenum producing countries are also among the biggest copper producing nations. Worldwide molybdenum production was 260,000 MT in 2023. Last year, China, the biggest molybdenum producer, was responsible for 110,000 MT, or more than 42 percent of total global output of the metal. Chile and Peru take second and third place for molybdenum output with 46,000 MT and 37,000 MT, respectively.

Molybdenum’s industrial importance and high supply risk has earned it a spot on the official critical mineral lists for Japan, the EU, the US and China. These countries could place restrictions on molybdenum exports to protect domestic supply. This could have significant implications if carried out by major producer China.

In Chile, the world’s largest copper producing country and second largest molybdenum producer, a lack of government investment in the copper mining sector over the years has led to significant declines in output.

Lower copper prices are expected to place downward pressure on global molybdenum supply in the years ahead, according to Kevin Pritchett, director of marketing for Climax Molybdenum, a subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), speaking at the SMR Stainless Steel conference in September 2024.

‘We’ve said for some time that most of the growth in supply would come from copper-molybdenum mines because the world needs to electrify and decarbonize, so it’s going to need more copper,’ Pritchett said. “But because the (London Metal Exchange) copper price has been somewhat depressed, these new projects are not coming online very quickly, so it has a knock-on effect on molybdenum.’

How to invest in molybdenum

There are a number of entry points for investing in the molybdenum market, including molybdenum stocks, molybdenum ETFs and molybdenum futures. We take a look at each of those three ways to invest in molybdenum below. All data and information was current as of November 5, 2024.

Molybdenum stocks

Molybdenum mining stocks are arguably the best place to start when investing in molybdenum.

There are a number of publicly traded mining companies with shares listed on major exchanges including the TSX, ASX and the NYSE. All stocks discussed below had market caps above $5 million at the time data was collected.

Major mining stocks

Centerra Gold (TSX:CG,NYSE:CGAU)
Centerra Gold’s Molybdenum Business Unit includes the past-operating Thompson Creek mine in Idaho, USA; the past-operating Endako molybdenum mine in British Columbia, Canada; and the operating Langeloth metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania, USA. The main focus of the Molybdenum Business Unit is bringing the Thompson Creek mine back online with first production anticipated in H2 2027.

Climax Molybdenum
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) subsidiary Climax Molybdenum is the world’s largest molybdenum producing company, with an output of 32,633 MT of the metal in 2023. The firm has two primary molybdenum mining operations in the US state of Colorado — Climax and Henderson — and also operates conversion plants for upgraded molybdenum chemical products in the US state of Iowa and in the Netherlands.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO)
Rio Tinto produces molybdenum as a by-product from a number of its significant mining operations, including the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia. In the US, Rio Tinto produces molybdenum at its Kennecott copper mine in Utah and its Resolution copper mine in Arizona.

Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO)
Southern Copper is another major mining company that produces molybdenum as a by-product. Its molybdenum concentrate products come from its large copper porphyry mines, specifically Buenavista and La Caridad in Mexico, and Cuajone and Toquepala in Peru.

Taseko Mines (TSX:TKO,NYSEAMERICAN:TGB,LSE:TKO)
Taseko Mines owns and operates the massive Gibraltar copper-molybdenum mine in British Columbia. The second-largest copper mine in Canada, Gibraltar is expected to continue production up through 2044. In March 2024, Taseko increased its ownership position in the mine from 87.5 percent to 100 percent.

Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TSX:TECK.B,NYSE:TECK)
Teck Resources produces molybdenum concentrate from its Highland Valley Copper mine in British Columbia and the Antamina polymetallic mine in Peru. The largest copper mine in Canada, Highland Valley is also the country’s top molybdenum producer.

Junior mining stocks

Erdene Resources (TSX:ERD)
Erdene Resources has a five-year development plan for its assets in the emerging Khundii minerals district of southwestern Mongolia. In addition to the Bayan Khundii gold-silver and the Altan Nar gold-silver-lead-zinc projects, the company is also developing the Zuun Mod molybdenum-copper project.

Latin Metals (TSXV:LMS,OTCQB:LMSQF)
Latin Metals is a project generator with a diverse asset portfolio in South America. The company holds two key exploration-stage copper-molybdenum projects in Peru’s coastal copper belt: Auquis and Lacsha.

Libero Copper (TSXV:LBC,OTCQB:LBCMF)
Libero Copper’s flagship Mocoa porphyry copper-molybdenum project is located within Colombia’s Jurassic Copper Belt. Resource expansion is currently underway on this exploration-stage project.

Los Andes Copper (TSXV:LA,OTCQX:LSANF)
Los Andes Copper owns the Vizcachitas copper-molybdenum porphyry project in Chile. The company completed a pre-feasibility study for the property in April 2023 demonstrating an initial mine life of 26 years producing 8.763 billion pounds of copper, 273.3 million pounds of molybdenum and 32.7 million ounces of silver, based on a mill throughput of 136,000 MT per day.

Starcore International Mines (TSX:SAM)
Starcore International Mines’ main focus is its precious metals assets. However, the gold producer is conducting exploration work on its wholly owned Ajax molybdenum project in the mineral-rich Golden Triangle of British Columbia, Canada.

Stuhini Exploration (TSXV:STU,OTCQB:STXPF)
Stuhini Exploration has an extensive portfolio of precious and base metals properties in Canada and the US. The company’s flagship asset is the Ruby Creek molybdenum deposit in British Columbia. The project has a measured and indicated resource estimate of 433 million pounds of molybdenum.

Molybdenum ETFs

For those investors not wanting to put all their eggs in one basket, exchange-traded funds with a focus on industrial metals are also a great play in the molybdenum space. Here are a few to get you started.

iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF (TSX:XBM)
As the name suggests, the iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF offers exposure to base metals mining stocks. Amongst the fund’s top holdings are Freeport-McMoRan, Rio Tinto, Teck and Southern Copper.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSEMKT:XME)
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining is another ETF that tracks the metals mining stocks. The fund’s top holdings include: Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD), Freeport-McMoRan and Carpenter Technology (NYSE:CRS).

VanEck Green Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:GMET)
If investors are looking to make a play on molybdenum’s emerging role in the transition to a green economy, the VanEck Green Metals ETF leverages the performance of the MVIS Global Clean-Tech Metals Index, which tracks companies involved in the production, refining, processing and recycling of green metals.

GMET’s top holdings include Freeport-McMoRan, Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) and Anglo American (LSE:AAL), as well as Teck Resources and Southern Copper.

Molybdenum futures

Another option for those looking to invest in molybdenum is molybdenum futures, a derivative instrument tied directly to the price of the actual metal. Futures are a financial contract between an investor and a seller. The investor agrees to purchase an asset from the seller at an agreed-upon price based on a date set in the future.

Rather than intending to take possession of the material asset, investors speculating in the futures market are instead making bets on whether the price of a particular commodity will rise or fall in the near future.

For example, if you buy a molybdenum futures contract believing the price of metal is set to rise, and your prediction proves correct, you could gain a return on your investment by selling the now more valuable futures contract before it expires. However, be advised that trading futures contracts is not for the novice investor.

Molybdenum futures are available for trade through the London Metals Exchange (LME) and CME Group.

Since 2010, the LME has offered Molybdenum futures contracts with prices based on the Platts Molybdenum Oxide Daily Dealer (Global) assessment as a reference point for pricing technical-grade molybdenum oxide traded in spot markets across the main global trading locations.

A new investment vehicle, the CME Group Molybdenum Oxide (Platts) futures became available to trade on-screen via CME Globex and for submission for clearing through CME ClearPort in March 2023. It also uses the Platts Molybdenum Oxide Daily Dealer (Global) assessment.